USDA expects PHL raw sugar output to fall 3.6% this year

THE US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said Philippine raw sugar production is expected to decline 3.6% to 1.85 million metric tons (MMT) during the 2024 to 2025 crop year, with the decline partly offset by increased acreage planted to cane.

In a report, the USDA said the forecast is more bullish than that of the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), which officially estimates output at 1.78 MMT.

The SRA said in Sugar Order (SO) no. 1 that it projects a 7.2% drop in sugar production from the 1.92 MMT reported during the previous crop year, citing crop damage sustained during the dry conditions brought by El Niño.

Sugarcane planting normally starts in October and ends in May.

The USDA on the other hand said that the expansion of acreage and a less severe El Niño than usual underpinned its own forecast.

The government weather service, known as PAGASA, declared the onset of El Niño in June 2023, bringing below-normal rainfall conditions, dry spells, and droughts. It ended in June.

The USDA added that the increase in Mindanao plantings could boost the area planted to cane to about 389,500 hectares from 388,000 hectares the prior crop year.

“The loss of area in Luzon due to land conversion to residential and commercial purposes will only partly offset area expansion in Mindanao,” it added.

SO 1 designated all sugar production for the 2024-2025 crop year as “B” sugar, for domestic use only.

The US maintained the Philippines’ export quota at 145,235 metric tons raw value of raw cane sugar under the tariff rate quota scheme of the World Trade Organization.

The SRA had earlier allowed the export of 25,000 MT of domestic raw sugar to fulfill the US quota after three years of noncompliance.

The USDA added that expects no further imports of sugar by the Philippines during the 2024-2025 crop year with the government seeking to protect Philippine producers. — Adrian H. Halili